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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still