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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd